{
  "claim_id": "C1",
  "title": "USCIS published upper-bound change, May 22 → June 23, 2026",
  "canonical_slug": "uscis-upper-bound-change-may-june-2026",
  "canonical_url": "https://immigrationtimes.org/research/uscis-upper-bound-change-may-june-2026/",
  "status": "published",
  "public": true,
  "noindex": false,
  "dates": {
    "source_publication_prior": "2026-05-22",
    "source_publication_current": "2026-06-23",
    "raw_capture_prior": "2026-05-23",
    "raw_capture_current": "2026-07-09",
    "canonical_ingestion_prior": "2026-05-23",
    "canonical_ingestion_current": "2026-06-24",
    "release": "2026-07-10"
  },
  "inputs": {
    "prior": {
      "file": "data/raw/2026-05-23.db",
      "sha256": "1e4597822a7ddb68594f3ae2cd84f787792dac2a7cc1951b0121141e908af98f",
      "source_publication": "May 22, 2026",
      "rows": 497
    },
    "current": {
      "file": "data/raw/2026-07-09.db",
      "sha256": "7cd4a1473613d729c3e8c1b6b2162a7af5cfd4caf42d950bdebfd7c26bb98a69",
      "source_publication": "June 23, 2026",
      "rows": 495
    }
  },
  "method": {
    "exact_key": "(form_name, office_code, form_subtype)",
    "metric": "published upper bound (range_upper) of each USCIS processing-time series",
    "unit_normalization": {
      "days_per_month": 30.44,
      "rules": "month→as-is; week×7÷DPM; day÷DPM; year×12; round to 2 decimals"
    },
    "inversion_handling": "if normalized lower > upper, swap before classification",
    "null_treatment": "exclude series whose current OR prior upper is null",
    "exclusions_for_sensitivity": [
      "I-485",
      "N-400",
      "N-600",
      "N-600K"
    ],
    "weighting": "equal per exact-key series; NOT weighted by application or receipt volume",
    "comparison_rule": "current.upper > prior.upper → higher; < → lower; == → unchanged",
    "generator": "bin/build-research-release.js",
    "generator_commit": "f1fb5c7d0b1dcb00644c3f63563607f08dbd6e5b",
    "generator_sha256": "99e4883b464169875c5cc36fec9a016941ad0b517738fde7e9c0f83292749521",
    "reproduce": "Run the build script (bin/build-research-release.js), then the D-324 candidate guard, to validate against the two frozen raw snapshots."
  },
  "result": {
    "comparable_series": 492,
    "higher": 255,
    "unchanged": 159,
    "lower": 78,
    "higher_pct": 51.83,
    "lower_pct": 15.85
  },
  "sensitivity_result": {
    "excluded_forms": [
      "I-485",
      "N-400",
      "N-600",
      "N-600K"
    ],
    "comparable_series": 125,
    "higher": 64,
    "unchanged": 43,
    "lower": 18,
    "higher_pct": 51.2,
    "lower_pct": 14.4
  },
  "output_hashes": {
    "csv": "75524ea041c7d79d9d08c9181b601fd878e521ecd5863ea9b17e3d43049d7836",
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    "page": "e8da535dc882f40ef1316a0bbc74eaadee67a4ce65ad991b6c66bf012807ea35"
  },
  "claims": {
    "primary": "Between the May 22 and June 23, 2026 USCIS publications, the published upper bound was higher for 255 of 492 comparable form-office-subtype series (51.8%), lower for 78 (15.9%), and unchanged for 159. Each series is equally weighted; the result is not weighted by application or receipt volume and does not measure how many applicants waited longer or establish a national backlog trend.",
    "sensitivity": "After excluding I-485, N-400, N-600, and N-600K — the four high-row-count field-office forms — the published upper bound was higher for 64 of 125 comparable series (51.2%), lower for 18 (14.4%), and unchanged for 43."
  },
  "prohibited_claims": [
    "Most applicants are waiting longer.",
    "USCIS performance worsened for most cases.",
    "The national backlog increased by 51.8%.",
    "Most immigration forms got slower.",
    "Most offices got slower.",
    "Processing times increased by 51.8%.",
    "A policy change caused the June increase.",
    "The June direction predicts July."
  ],
  "boundary": "Public research release. Publication does not authorize reporter contact, direct outreach, social distribution, Exp#51 activation, or D-259 clearance.",
  "publication": {
    "authority": "D-326",
    "released": "2026-07-10",
    "qa_verdict": "agents/qa/test-results/2026-07-10-iter598-d324-r3-verdict.md",
    "approved_candidate_hashes": {
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      "png": "5ad1ad9cab2a7855587bc46978d55e93b750677a44128c46ef73a1f770a78a09"
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    "permitted_page_differences": [
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}